The Business of Building a City: A Data-Driven Response to the Conference Board of Canada
Today, the Conference Board of Canada (CBoC) released its Major City Insights: Edmonton report.
Their assessment uses language that is somewhat charged – warnings of "weak growth”, concerns over "sagging oil prices”, and a "loss of national competitiveness”.
It’s all on the framing, and in this article I’ll provide a different view using the same information.
In the world of traditional macroeconomics, the indicators the CBoC rightly flag often spell trouble. However, to accept this narrative at face value is to perhaps misunderstand the fundamental nature of the municipal corporation.
What many folks don’t know is that all municipalities in Canada are corporations as well as governments. We have a charter, we have assets, we have liabilities, and we have shareholders — the people of Edmonton. But unlike a publicly-traded company, our goal isn't quarterly profit extraction; it is long-term solvency, service delivery, and value generation for our residents.
When we view the CBoC’s data through the lens of a municipal corporation focused on fiscal sustainability, the "slowdown" they describe looks less like a recession and more like a necessary stabilization of our balance sheet.
Here is the evidence-based reality of our position in 2026 in four parts and a conclusion:
1. The Liability of Growth: Why "Weakness" can actually be a welcome reprieve
The Conference Board cites slower population growth as a negative economic indicator. From a GDP perspective, more people typically equals more consumption. But from a municipal corporate perspective, unmanaged population growth is a liability, not an asset.
For years, we have discussed the "Growth Ponzi Scheme" – the cycle where cities build new subdivisions to collect development fees, only to be left with long-term infrastructure liabilities that tax revenues cannot cover.
We are currently managing a $1.5 billion shortfall in our 2023-2026 capital budget renewal funding. This is the "infrastructure deficit" (the gap between what we own and what we can afford to fix).
Every new neighbourhood built during a boom adds miles of roadway, pipes, and electrical grid that the Corporation must maintain forever.
The City and region have cooperated to ensure greater density in new builds and the trend toward financial sustainability for new greenfields is trending in the right direction moving forward, however there are still the legacy challenges and the interim density targets increasing.
Having said that, when growth outpaces our ability to fund these liabilities, we are effectively borrowing against the future. The CBoC’s forecast of "weak growth" provides a critical window to address this deficit.
We are currently funding only roughly 54% of necessary maintenance and renewal.
A stabilization in population growth allows us to shift capital away from subsidizing new greenfield expansion and toward the $2 billion in renewal projects already in our budget, such as the High Level Bridge rehabilitation or replacement and transit fleet upgrades.
Provincial Finance Minister Nate Horner explicitly warned municipalities, "Nobody's coming on a white horse to save you." We cannot rely on provincial grants to backfill the cost of rapid growth. This slowdown is the only mechanism allowing our tax base to catch up to our footprint.
2. Market Correction: Competitiveness Through Affordability
The CBoC report warns of a "loss of national competitiveness for pricing." In corporate terms, losing pricing power is bad. In municipal terms, however, this is an economist’s way of saying that Edmonton isn't seeing the skyrocketing asset inflation of other markets.
I suggest that in 2026, affordability is our most potent competitive advantage.
If we look at the housing data released yesterday by the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton for December 2025, we see a market that is correcting, not crashing:
-Sales Volume: Decreased by 20.4% month-over-month.
-Detached Prices: Actually increased by 5.2% year-over-year to ~$566,000.
-Condo/Apartment Prices: have corrected downward by 5.7%.
-Inventory: have increased 11.6% year-over-year.
This data tells us an interesting story. The sharp drop in sales volume combined with rising inventory potentially (and likely) represents the exit of speculative capital. That means “out-of-city” investors looking for a quick flip are leaving the market. This "cools" the heat. However, the stability in detached home prices shows that families, a city’s most important "shareholders", are retaining value.
By avoiding the hyper-inflation of Toronto or Vancouver, we have managed to maintain a cost-of-living advantage that supports the "People-First Economic Policy" championed by Mayor Knack, and indeed by all.
We attract labour not just with jobs, but with the math of a viable life. This "loss of pricing competitiveness" is actually the restoration of our affordability advantage.
3. Structural Reform: Implementing "The Money Plan"
The Conference Board correctly identifies our exposure to "sagging oil prices" and "murky trade prospects."
If the Corporation of the City of Edmonton relies on the old model where we wait for provincial grants funded by oil royalties we are indeed vulnerable.
This is precisely why we have been developing the Municipal Fiscal Independence Strategy (what I have coined, “The Money Plan”). We are restructuring the Corporation’s revenue model to reduce reliance on property taxes and volatile provincial transfers. Some of these efforts and strategies include:
Smarter Greenfield: Recent City Plan amendments now require higher density in greenfield developments. This ensures that new "corporate subsidiaries" (neighbourhoods) generate enough tax revenue per hectare to cover their own servicing costs. Now and into the future. There is still work to be done here but the good news is that it is happening.
Asset Utilization: We’re looking at leveraging our significant land assets, promising avenues of greater revenue generation and innovation, and the EdTel Endowment Fund to generate investment income – all to offset the tax levy and to put Edmonton in a strong and enviable financial position.
Equity Stakes: Instead of simply offering grants to attract business, the strategy involves developing mutually beneficial ways to take equity stakes in local business partnerships. This cannot involve the government picking winners and losers but must be an arms length approach. This aligns the City’s revenue with the private sector's success. If they grow, the City's revenue grows without raising taxes.
4. Economic Development: The Industrial Reality (and Opportunity)
While the CBoC report focuses on macro-level trade risks with the US and China, the on-the-ground reality in Edmonton shows specific sectors decoupling from these trends. However, we cannot abandon these potential partnerships and revenue sources (markets). As such, at the time of this writing both Mayor Knack and Councillor Tang are currently in China to build stronger relationships and to promote Edmonton. We will require more travel to markets to position Edmonton as strongly as possible as often as possible with potential investors and markets. This will be gruelling but the burden can be sore and amongst Councillors and partner organizations.
Despite the gloomy forecast, Edmonton’s Industrial market recorded positive net absorption in the third quarter of 2025. Why? because our "loss of pricing competitiveness" (cheaper land) makes us attractive for logistics, manufacturing, and food processing.
Council’s pivot to "Economic Development First" aligns with this. By adding prioritization to "Stay and Grow" initiatives where the City helps existing local businesses scale - we insulate the local economy from global trade wars and unexpected ebbs and flows. Protected against ebbs and able to capitalize on the flows.
The 2025 industrial land absorption data proves that businesses are still setting up shop here because the fundamentals (cost and logistics) make sense for them. This work continues with purpose and not at the speed of business but at the speed of sheer necessity.
Conclusion: A Stronger Balance Sheet
The Conference Board of Canada’s job is to report on the velocity of the economy (GDP). Our job, as the elected stewards of the Municipal Corporation, is to ensure, protect, and forward its longevity and solvency.
While to some, the data from January 2026 show a city in decline, to insiders and watchers like myself, it shows a city thankfully exiting a brutal cycle of unsustainable, subsidized growth and entering a more stable phase of fiscal maturity. By stabilizing our infrastructure liabilities, maintaining housing affordability, and diversifying our revenue streams through The City Plan and my developing “Money Plan”, we are ensuring that Edmonton remains solvent, resilient, and competitive for the long term.
We are very closely listening to the market signals, make no mistake about that. The work of the CBoC is vital and important. We take it seriously. As such, we are continually adjusting our strategy accordingly where needed. That is what good corporations and what good governments do.
References & Verification
CBoC Report: Conference Board of Canada, "Major City Insights: Edmonton," January 6, 2026.
https://www.conferenceboard.ca/product/major-city-insights-edmonton_jan2026/
Housing Data: REALTORS Association of Edmonton - Monthly Statistics for December 2025 (Jan 5, 2026). Stats on sales volume (-20.4%), detached prices (+5.2%), and inventory.
https://realtorsofedmonton.com/statistic/end-of-year-marked-by-decline-in-sales-and-condo-prices/
Infrastructure Deficit: City of Edmonton Administration Report regarding the $1.5B capital shortfall and 54% renewal funding ratio.
https://pub-edmonton.escribemeetings.com/filestream.ashx?DocumentId=261618
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/city-edmonton-renewal-investment-shortfall-1.7548467
Provincial Grants: Remarks by Finance Minister Nate Horner regarding municipal funding
Strategic Plans: Councillor Aaron Paquette’s "The Money Plan" (Municipal Fiscal Independence Strategy)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VeuCNYpjsN0
and Mayor Andrew Knack’s "People-First Economic Policy."
https://andrewknack.ca/policies/people-first-economic-policy
Industrial Data: Q3 2025 Industrial Market Reports (e.g., Avison Young/Colliers) citing positive absorption in Edmonton.
https://www.avisonyoung.ca/web/edmonton/industrial-market-report
https://www.cbre.ca/insights/figures/edmonton-industrial-figures-q3-2025
